What we mean by high-conviction

Most deal platforms use “high-conviction” as a sticker. We use it as a filter. Roughly nine of every ten opportunities that reach us never make it onto the deal flow page. The ones that do all share four traits.

One. An operator who has weathered a full cycle

We want to see how the team behaves when things go sideways, not when the wind is at their back. A sponsor who has only operated through a benign rate environment is not disqualifying, but it changes how we frame the risk. We back operators who can show us at least one downturn they navigated, ideally with their own capital alongside ours.

Two. Alignment that is visible in the structure

If the sponsor is taking a 2 and 20 with no co-invest, we move on. We want to see meaningful skin in the game, ideally GP commits at the level that hurts if the deal underperforms. We also look at the waterfall: does it pay the GP first, or do investors get a real preferred return before the carry kicks in.

Three. A thesis we can stress-test in a single page

Complexity is fine. Opacity is not. If the operator cannot explain in a page why this asset, in this geography, at this entry price, then we are not the right home for the capital. The deals that make it through our screen are ones where members can read the memo on a Sunday morning and form their own view.

Four. Materials that respect the reader

We have seen pitch decks padded with stock photography and confidence intervals invented in PowerPoint. We have also seen 14-page memos from groups managing hundreds of millions that gave us more clarity than most institutional reports. The difference is intent: are the materials there to inform a buyer, or to overwhelm one. We index on the former.

None of this is a guarantee. Deals fail. Operators miss. Markets move. What our filter does is concentrate the failure modes we will accept: surprises that come from the market, not from the structure or the people. That is what we mean when we say a deal is high-conviction. A small number, screened hard, with the risks visible on page one.